Every basket counts, but not all shots carry the same value. The best players aren’t just skilled shooters—they’re smart decision-makers who understand when and where to take their chances.

For Lykkers who want to elevate their game, this guide breaks down how shot selection and expected value can turn you into a more efficient and reliable scorer.

It’s not just about taking shots; it’s about choosing the right ones at the right time.

Understanding Shot Selection

Taking good shots is more than pure mechanics. It’s about reading the court, evaluating your options, and knowing what gives you the best chance to score.

What Shot Selection Means

Shot selection is the ability to decide whether a shot is worth taking. It includes judging your range, the defender’s position, and the game situation. A contested jumper from far out might look impressive, but an open mid-range or a kick-out to a teammate could be the smarter play.

High-Percentage Areas

Some spots on the floor naturally give you better odds. Layups and shots near the rim usually deliver the highest percentage, followed by three-pointers when taken with space and balance. Mid-range shots can be useful, but they generally offer less efficiency. Understanding these zones helps you choose shots that give your team the most value.

Balancing Confidence and Discipline

Confidence matters, but discipline keeps your game sharp. Just because you feel good doesn’t mean every shot is the right one. The key is blending your belief in your ability with smart decision-making. Take shots you’ve practiced and that fit the moment, not just the ones that feel flashy.

Expected Value in Action

Once you know which shots are higher percentage, it’s time to connect them with expected value—a simple way to think about efficiency.

What Expected Value Means

Expected value is about comparing the average points you’ll get from different shots. For example, a three-pointer might go in less often than a layup, but because it’s worth more, the overall payoff can be higher. By thinking in terms of expected value, you’ll understand why certain shots help your team more than others.

Practical Examples

Imagine you hit 50% of your layups and 35% of your three-pointers. That means layups average one point per attempt (two points × 50%), while threes average just over one point (three points × 35%). Both are valuable, but the numbers explain why threes are so powerful when you shoot them well.

Applying It in Games

You don’t need a calculator on the court—just awareness. Recognise when driving to the rim, finding a spot for a clean three, or passing to an open teammate will maximize your team’s scoring chances. With practice, these decisions become instinctive. You’ll take smarter shots, waste fewer possessions, and build trust with teammates who know you’ll make the right call.

Great players aren’t only defined by skill—they’re defined by choices. Shot selection and expected value give you the tools to think like a strategist while playing like a scorer. By understanding which shots provide the highest return and balancing that with confidence in your abilities, you’ll help your team win more often.

For Lykkers, it’s proof that smart basketball isn’t just about how you shoot—it’s about when, where, and why you choose to shoot.